Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a49d18088a8d4ea5e44a96604618dd12339c1a7667012605575fe7b6d5986cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 2,068$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.21 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 1,152$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.04 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 57c | 307.76$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 303.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 62c | 211.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 206.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 73c | 197.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 42c | 194.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 188.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 169.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 30c | 165.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.52 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 152.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 142.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 38c | 135.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…62b0backed Yes | 65c | 124.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 27c | 116.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 102.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 101.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 97.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 95.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 26c | 86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 80.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 67c | 78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 36c | 74.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 54c | 73.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 72.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 68.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 67c | 67.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 66.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 58c | 58.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 55c | 57.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 50.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 70c | 47.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…1327backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 28c | 42.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 41.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcc…416cbacked Yes | 30c | 39.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 63c | 38.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 36.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 71c | 35.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 31.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 68c | 29.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 65c | 29.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 27.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 26.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked Yes | 41c | 26.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 54c | 21.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…0220backed No | 78c | 16.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.