Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a5d60bfbc841d82b1e8db1257dd5ef81fb41538c5be8470b0547ee4791ef5b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 754.47$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.29 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 45c | 690.96$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.27 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 397.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 47c | 377.37$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 59c | 348.17$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 51c | 263.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 252.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 203.01$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 40c | 194.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 36c | 142.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 53c | 135.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes | 54c | 133.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 125.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 36c | 115.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 106.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 101.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 97.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 83.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 64c | 75.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 59c | 70.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 62.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 66c | 59.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 58.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 58.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 58.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 20c | 54.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 52.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 51.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 50.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 44.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 39.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 38.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 36.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 64c | 34.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 33c | 32.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 46c | 27.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 53c | 27.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 26.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…b206backed Yes | 62c | 25.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 67c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 65c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.