World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd1c31293b53b996545445fe310fa6f3a5d511a9411e215a4c126276ba318672
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 782.65$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.22 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 697$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.3 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 563.85$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 486.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 49c | 473.73$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.73 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 439.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 39c | 339.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 32c | 334.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 317.15$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 269.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 268.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 252$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 56c | 224.53$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 213.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 49c | 199.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 51c | 196.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 49c | 190.49$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 186.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 171.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 168.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 62c | 160$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 152$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 147.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 51c | 137.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 130.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 52c | 129.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 126.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 126.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 50c | 116.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 112.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 110.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 108.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 16c | 105.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 49c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 50c | 89.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 48c | 81.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 79.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 51c | 78.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 43c | 74.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes | 79c | 74.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 48c | 73.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 51c | 70.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 69.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…8ff0backed No | 23c | 67.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 17c | 65.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 63.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 61.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 55c | 59.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 48c | 57.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 50c | 56.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 54c | 55.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 52c | 54.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 54.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 78c | 51.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 50c | 50.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 50.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…b192backed No | 50c | 49.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 49c | 47.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 47c | 47.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 46.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 50c | 45.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 54c | 44.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 50c | 39.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 51c | 38.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 79c | 38.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 48c | 35.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 55c | 35.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 46c | 35.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 33.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 49c | 33.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 30.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 49c | 29.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.