TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,809 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf421…efcebacked Yes13c868.84$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.98234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes20c762.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.143321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes33c606.42$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.67623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes28c590$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.315052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes35c513.09$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17823723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes19c443.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0510629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes4c415.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.545127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No63c366.07$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.45957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No66c365.72$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.813646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No76c320.67$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.413925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes38c307.89$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1178844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c307.54$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No71c298.04$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9914959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf57…52f2backed Yes28c273.16$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.691566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c270.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6639231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c264$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c255.22$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes27c223.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.442458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c215.27$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8232748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes48c209.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No72c208.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0632354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No74c195.92$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0421854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes27c189.97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c188.7$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2340648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes20c187.77$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6546330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes28c179.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf26a…625cbacked No60c165.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2693…28a3backed No59c164.29$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes29c164$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.945248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes37c158$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.214240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe718…1e2bbacked No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb252…add8backed No66c151.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.61366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0691…af35backed No66c151.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No73c151.18$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.18540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes14c139.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.252626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes36c137.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c135.76$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No71c133.3$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.445954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes39c128$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.922231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No57c121.38$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.79558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No74c120$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.622355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes44c113.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No70c107.09$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0918762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No77c103.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.291190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick66cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No55c102.22$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3313155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.918342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.53669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd192…d266backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes20c98.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4215036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x463f…f78ebacked Yes37c96.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.59633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes46c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.76448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No59c85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.856241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes21c82.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3514827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8339952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No71c76.45$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3427143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes20c76.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.271520%3 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes36c75.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.531145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No63c75.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8412055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c75.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2518035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes43c73.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.652133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No69c69.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.46346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes24c68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1212640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes46c65.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c62.84$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c62.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6132639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes40c62.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.160%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No63c59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8313357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No64c56.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.545170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes25c51.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.757129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes36c51.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.464831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes49c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+40%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2518348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4510733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes46c43.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5211…2f44backed Yes35c43.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+39.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No79c42.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1418662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.419315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.655945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103183.9%26 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No64c38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.767561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes47c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked No66c37.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.68944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes41c37.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.17248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No71c36.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.781936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f17…bc44backed No78c32.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.221963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c31.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4318669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.759959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed Yes37c31.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.676960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No77c30.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.088959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No62c30.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6918158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.55066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.418672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No54c28.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.191040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-37.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb45a…f218backed Yes42c28.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No79c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.885881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.