World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f5d2b18e98f19b109d0662daec7ff0ab5959007933421adc1c50ad1ba2f944d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 1,159$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 10c | 700.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 651.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 573.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 8c | 529.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…9773backed Yes | 5c | 308.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 305.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 297.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 231.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 216.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 203$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 8c | 202.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 22c | 180.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 8c | 173$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 146.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 145.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 8c | 140.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 131.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 131.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 126.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 75c | 121.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 117.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 113.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 102.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 27c | 84.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 70.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 45.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 26c | 43.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 71c | 42.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 20.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.