TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,072
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,072 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6201…a173backed Yes11c2,362$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes60c1,668$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No43c990.54$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.6621854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes52c869.75$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.972339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No44c697.8$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.7714959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes45c620.75$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.219337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No45c612.12$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.829822.4%22 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No31c599.3$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.525749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No51c591.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.664841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No49c531.68$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.97785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes50c500.01$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.163321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No48c405.22$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.41752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c361.52$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.2188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No48c353.33$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.113646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c350.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6923044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No80c304.96$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.232653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No76c292.96$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3913357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No45c260.82$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7121844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c248.31$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6240648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No52c245.09$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2413155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes44c244.77$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8818638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes40c242.19$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes62c238.02$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.572927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes45c222.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58e…daeebacked Yes52c217.91$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.18875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked No47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.77728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes51c208.21$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.397741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c199.18$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2236055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No44c185$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1952850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No49c181.33$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.975554.5%30 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c178.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2944428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No32c174.63$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7214521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes61c162.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.961662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes50c159.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.115547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked No38c156$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.351225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes65c154.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No43c151.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.891838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-39.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes66c151.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95db…f2a7backed Yes66c151.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c148.93$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No33c142.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3726632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No59c141.57$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3311053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No41c140.21$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.041338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked No46c140.01$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No50c137.74$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.34259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No50c135.05$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.53988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+43%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbf…d779backed Yes68c131.41$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.550%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No64c129.59$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4227143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes44c114.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes48c113.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6618342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No62c112.7$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5418662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes34c112.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.751118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes38c111$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.632634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd496…0ab0backed Yes59c110$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes50c108.26$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.434566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c107.21$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2516051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…8487backed No49c102.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes22c100.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5416852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525044%22 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No38c99.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No51c97.36$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9232354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed No35c97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes50c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.952835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No50c90.2$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes57c88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.795248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c86.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No49c85$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.53669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes60c85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5117345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed4…7a7dbacked Yes63c84.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.881758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No52c82.63$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0316254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…00a0backed Yes61c81.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes59c80$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3712640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes59c79.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.949558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes69c78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes65c77.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.59936.4%36 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No40c72.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.386346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes56c70.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.41250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c69.9$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.932639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No66c68.51$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.371369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No48c67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8414454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked No47c66.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.661471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+94.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No44c66.63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5816850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes47c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5510629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes62c64.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.992231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb76a…d7ebbacked No64c62.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.651266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No44c62.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6516051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes36c62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4810837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No45c60.28$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1517952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes36c59.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.42777.8%21 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes54c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No44c56.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.664052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No42c55.06$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.093360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No60c55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.21844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No46c54.34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.346241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes65c53.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No50c52.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.072157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.