TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd23f…94a1backed No66c829.38$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.5614959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No52c685.82$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.2121854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c679.63$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.7244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes25c656.28$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.2823723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No29c602.85$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8314521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes19c548.83$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.555749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes27c428.82$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.115644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes75c399.17$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5423044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c362.72$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7431635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No63c357.86$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.659822.4%22 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c357.35$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.532748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes32c354.1$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.412927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No73c328.33$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.044355.8%24 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c289$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4528558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes37c270.57$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5521844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes27c261.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1913321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes47c253$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6114842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c240.86$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No75c234.98$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.169558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes39c233.73$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.571471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+94.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed29…3848backed Yes27c220.4$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1612030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16412816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes63c199.57$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.569337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes24c197.76$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5612040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes75c196.71$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4114553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes62c188.57$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.01520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No63c186.24$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.255554.5%30 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes30c185$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2310629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No75c182.94$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.515036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes43c181.05$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.17741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes60c179.17$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.491266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes32c171.28$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.288438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c163.09$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3440648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c160$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes53c158.7$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.76955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No73c150$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.57450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes78c136.92$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.923548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No22c136.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4726632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes33c119.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.191118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes50c119.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.582653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes78c119.72$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5916051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes49c117.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6213357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked Yes30c117$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c115.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes31c115.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes62c115.08$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0116450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes24c112.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4418158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes25c107.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.188937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes35c107.67$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.216934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No44c107.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9116051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c104.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes27c103.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+84.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes39c102.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.323531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.99540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No73c97.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.291957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes25c96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5310320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No60c92.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3812640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x761a…e1f3backed Yes71c92$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes48c91.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.282857.1%16 W · 12 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+106.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c90$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2131152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes27c88.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.887236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No65c87.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7518662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58e…daeebacked Yes60c85.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.46875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes35c82.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1122111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No38c82.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4624637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed No75c80$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.816738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes29c78.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.532231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c77.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes26c76.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes40c74.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.999936.4%36 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes65c73.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.75785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes50c66.85$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.18520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No56c66.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3214954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.426355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes32c63.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4510837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No55c63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.424852.1%25 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No32c62.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6113155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes42c61.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.325547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+96.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8818342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes37c57.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.815913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes26c56.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.956224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No42c55.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6415954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes22c55.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.632835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No57c54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.027353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No70c52.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.827143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No50c51.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.672157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.52040%8 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No73c49.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.995170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c48.45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1623459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No62c47.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0615056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c47.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.517561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No75c46.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.076850%34 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes28c46.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.365044%22 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…ce8bbacked Yes50c45.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.67966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.