World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4439ecdda5828492581b62ca11f3315eee230ea19bdcb2b8266f7077429f414c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 829.38$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.56 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 685.82$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.21 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 679.63$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.72 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 656.28$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.28 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 29c | 602.85$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 19c | 548.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.55 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 27c | 428.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.11 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 399.17$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 362.72$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.74 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 63c | 357.86$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.65 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 357.35$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 32c | 354.1$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.41 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 328.33$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 289$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.45 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 37c | 270.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 27c | 261.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 47c | 253$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 240.86$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 234.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.16 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 39c | 233.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.57 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 27c | 220.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 63c | 199.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 197.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.56 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 75c | 196.71$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 62c | 188.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 186.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 185$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 182.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 181.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes | 60c | 179.17$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 171.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.28 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 163.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 53c | 158.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 78c | 136.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 136.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 33c | 119.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 50c | 119.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 78c | 119.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 49c | 117.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 30c | 117$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 115.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 31c | 115.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 115.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 112.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 107.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 35c | 107.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 107.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 104.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 27c | 103.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 39c | 102.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 73c | 97.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 92.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…e1f3backed Yes | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 48c | 91.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 27c | 88.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 87.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…daeebacked Yes | 60c | 85.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 82.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 82.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 29c | 78.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 77.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 65c | 73.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes | 50c | 66.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 66.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 32c | 63.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 32c | 62.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 61.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 37c | 57.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 26c | 56.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 55.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 55.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 57c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 52.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 50c | 51.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 49.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 48.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 47.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 47.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 46.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 46.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…ce8bbacked Yes | 50c | 45.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.