World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539eab3a92f6cf3b80ff9d0430150628bc9193cf68679aa35970a6b9ab25fce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 10c | 1,249$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 7c | 1,242$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 822.28$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.06 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 361$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 340.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 205$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 167.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 161.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 13c | 153.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 12c | 119.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 19c | 92.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 74c | 90.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 19c | 88.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 69.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…174bbacked Yes | 20c | 50.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 43.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 80c | 34.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 21.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 79c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 77c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.