TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes2c1,475$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.772,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes46c1,422$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.231,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes21c933.63$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.75736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes31c872.69$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes38c810.26$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes3c647.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.051679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No69c638.22$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.141,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No59c547.26$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.624,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd969…0932backed Yes40c531.22$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2154134.1%14 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c519.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes67c490.65$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.5513746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No64c439$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8914254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No50c408.33$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.492,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c402.5$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.262,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes33c390.55$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9734533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No55c353.61$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.192,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa12d…4c1bbacked No52c346.4$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.0220241.1%83 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c340.1$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.973,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No54c333.64$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.831,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c325.32$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.334,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes50c316.72$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8124141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No72c295.64$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.182,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes39c277.59$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1220739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c263.89$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c246.88$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.024,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c230.06$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.565,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c227.57$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.643,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No60c225.56$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.482,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes29c222.64$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5650860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No55c220.69$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.537258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No57c217.4$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.812,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c215$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.658,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No53c206.9$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.22,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c204.52$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes48c203.3$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1728324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes39c201.15$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0512629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes33c195.33$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.793253.1%17 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+60.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes52c195.14$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3312530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c184.44$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.394,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No53c182.27$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8976059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes30c181.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5442948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes36c180$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.44134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c178$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.845,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No51c177.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.012,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No50c167.61$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.742,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No61c165.13$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes44c165$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.063246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No55c160.27$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.942,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes38c158.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No59c156.08$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.592,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6657150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc138…b91bbacked Yes45c150$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No54c142.62$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0156424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No62c141.03$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.122,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c136$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.782,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes39c131.39$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.371,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a35…62b0backed Yes56c125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes25c120.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304637%17 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c120$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No60c118.78$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.878655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No53c116.21$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes32c115$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes45c108$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.231,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No60c105.86$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7840162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0914151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x032f…8d74backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.345,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c96.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.23,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes31c95.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No51c94.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3437465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes47c94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.655,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No68c92$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8889557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No36c90.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.976,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a01…cd36backed Yes51c90.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.311050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes71c90$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4956048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No68c88.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2928666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes43c85.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c81.97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.274,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes50c81.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.25135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes38c79.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306240.3%25 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes14c78.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.034431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes52c78.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No62c76.68$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.812,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No69c75.44$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes32c75.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8817251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes37c73.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.251,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes40c72.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes43c70$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4998236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No54c69.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes31c66.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.714957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed No79c66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.948337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No53c65.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.564,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes30c62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.647738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed No75c60.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.316349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No62c59.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7934831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.