Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54cb341214d31083a8263e87eaa2c5b18b06f46f939023ef8266670de830b4f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 42c | 1,847$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.12 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 33c | 1,027$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.97 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 873.39$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.08 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 714$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.31 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 624.54$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.1 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 616.33$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 75c | 400$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 385.05$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 37c | 380.81$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.81 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 379.83$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.46 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 378.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 367.12$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 363.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 354.89$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 350.59$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 65c | 348.37$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.29 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 46c | 324.23$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 14c | 323.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.85 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 50c | 322.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.94 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 318.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.41 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 318.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 316.56$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 309.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.91 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 33c | 300$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.8 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 51c | 296$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 272.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 268.81$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 264$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 262.39$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 259.12$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 256.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 251.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 38c | 248.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 236.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 32c | 233$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 14c | 220$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.21 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 219.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 28c | 211.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.52 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 208.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 207.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 10c | 204.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 61c | 204.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 203$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 50c | 200.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 199.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 193.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 187$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed No | 75c | 185.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.09 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 179.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 177.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 43c | 173.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 30c | 172.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 35c | 171.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 26c | 169.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 75c | 169.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 166.61$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 33c | 153.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 24c | 150$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 131$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 128.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…62b0backed Yes | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 124.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae73…09fabacked Yes | 69c | 123.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.46per pick | 75cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 35c | 117.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 29c | 115.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 38c | 115.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 25c | 114$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 72c | 110.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 108$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 106.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 105.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 35c | 100.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 60c | 91.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 20c | 82.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 21c | 81.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 32c | 74.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 72c | 70.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…5082backed Yes | 31c | 64.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 64.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 63.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 62.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 61.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 19c | 61.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.