Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79a414256ed4d0c616148fb0d1f6e1b464c79625f720c010fc3e1dcca96a3ccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 1,472$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.85 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 5c | 672.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 649.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 346.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 341.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 19c | 325.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 16c | 324.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 4c | 319.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 17c | 313.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…b91bbacked Yes | 11c | 300.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…08e1backed Yes | 14c | 281.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 272.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 14c | 252.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 9c | 239.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes | 8c | 185.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 185.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 13c | 176.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 171.6$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 8c | 163.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…b0ecbacked Yes | 8c | 162.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 11c | 150.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 140.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 18c | 140.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…cac7backed Yes | 16c | 123.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 14c | 116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 17c | 110.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 20c | 110.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 100.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…cb99backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 21c | 95.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 20c | 83.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 20c | 81.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 13c | 78.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 31c | 60.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 55.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 28c | 55.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 20c | 54.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 78c | 48.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.