Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f676366d8bf68a2cac92bd09a2a6d95994057502a172fdf0d40a797869dd10d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 1c | 24,857$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 57c | 1,500$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.97 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Yes | 1c | 1,192$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 717.35$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 42c | 702.84$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.39 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 39c | 639.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.79 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 25c | 477$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 38c | 475.75$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.33 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 36c | 438.39$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.16 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 409.75$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 3c | 389.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 40c | 365.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.64 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 39c | 316.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 309$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 53c | 289.51$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.13 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 44c | 265.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 246.69$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 30c | 246.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 44c | 243.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.05 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 234.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.63 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 219.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 157.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 148.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 146.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 70c | 118.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 66c | 106.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 59c | 102$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 54c | 101.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 42c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 93.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 40c | 90.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 61c | 88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 64c | 86.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 40c | 85.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 81.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 58c | 81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 80.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 39c | 79.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 58c | 79.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 68c | 76.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 37c | 75.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 40c | 72.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 73c | 71.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 65c | 70.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 66.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 65.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 70c | 64.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 61.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 56.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 51.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 49.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 63c | 46.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 46.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 44.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 78c | 43.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 42.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…c7fabacked Yes | 70c | 42.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 31c | 40.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb94…6194backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 77c | 38.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 38.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 50c | 37.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 37.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 41c | 33.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 60c | 32.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 53c | 28.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 38c | 27.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 60c | 27.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 40c | 25.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.