Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff7d1982d6bf6f78ac97122c09c741b1d8a178dd48d24d90e938da5d1d34dc93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 24c | 727.3$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.34 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 562.67$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.55 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 71c | 419.12$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 24c | 317.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 297$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 275.52$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 257.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 257$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 229.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 219.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 200.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 74c | 194.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 182.43$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 182.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 145.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 140.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 72c | 139.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 135.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 25c | 123.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 117$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 101.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 79.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 67.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 61.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 23c | 51.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 41.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 78c | 40.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 33.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 26.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 66c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 74c | 19.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 19.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.