Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbc5a6a570f31fe276b8df601bbe4a02f77967fcbf56d6f893f88e593e5f58b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 55c | 905.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.4 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 880.15$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.61 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 502.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.2 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 49c | 420.6$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.28 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 394.81$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 52c | 387$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 372.28$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 67c | 299.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 260.6$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 247.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 25c | 225.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…80dfbacked Yes | 69c | 220$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 194.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 192.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 39c | 187.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 186.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 7c | 179.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 173.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 143.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 66c | 136.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 58c | 130.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 127.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 24c | 125.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 121.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 115.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 56c | 114.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 66c | 108.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 106.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 105.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 33c | 103.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 57c | 102.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 70c | 95.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 61c | 94.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 93.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 88.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 59c | 76.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 74.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 73.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 72.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 69.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 28c | 69.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 67.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 66.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 64c | 63.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 62.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 34c | 61.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 71c | 60.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 59.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 68c | 58.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f11…15b5backed No | 76c | 57.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 53.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 62c | 46.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1541…033fbacked Yes | 67c | 45.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 24c | 45.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 66c | 44.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 43.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 46c | 43.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 42.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 53c | 41.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 31c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 37.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 51c | 33.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 41c | 31.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 48c | 30.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 34c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 77c | 25.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.