TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,959 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40a…e4a2backed No76c926.86$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.731,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No74c692.1$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.238,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes4c674.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3124141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes23c564.68$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.961,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes24c538.47$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7948331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes22c379.2$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3212927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No76c333$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1788628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes27c325$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes30c305.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5264446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c264.22$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.854,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes19c257.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2243932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes24c225.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes13c219.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes26c211$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5757747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3513637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf733…297dbacked Yes11c196.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0617511.4%20 W · 155 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes20c189.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No76c176.28$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes30c144.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.015,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked No70c143.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7813746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes11c137.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.051,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes37c134.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.651,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes31c133.76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8727335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No76c117.54$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.722,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c110.92$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.914,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes43c109.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6648523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes24c109$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.168536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No78c103.26$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.724,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes21c100.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.047234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c83.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.593,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No77c82.56$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.192,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No79c82.34$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.222,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No79c75.44$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.014,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No70c73.55$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.21,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes20c71.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2247239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d43…9719backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.942231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x100c…edc9backed Yes15c69.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-54.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c65.88$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.675,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.47733.8%26 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed No77c59.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.951,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes26c59.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4854154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No77c57.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.312,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.355,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c55.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No79c52.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.132,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.224,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes26c51.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.363253.1%17 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+60.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No80c51.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.522,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.123,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1049675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.043,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c49.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.412,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes25c48.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.112,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986b…2721backed No79c48.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3320358.1%118 W · 85 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes21c48.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1439543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes25c47.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No73c47.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.861,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No73c39.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.592,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No73c38.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.440862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c35.75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.593,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No79c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.511,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No78c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0417859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb338…5e1abacked Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82556%14 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf3…369dbacked No77c29.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.973959%23 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No79c28.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.884,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked No77c26.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.154735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed No75c20.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.29176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5562275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No67c20.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.711,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No63c20.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.422,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.237150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No75c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa47e…261cbacked No71c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31656.3%9 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick74cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ee…e90bbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.53565.7%23 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.