Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab3df1ea91d7d14076e3c266f396e3a64a4853d569b99c843c6aa11772ddb1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 6,187$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 1c | 1,480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 1,050$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 20c | 801.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 710.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 704.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 59c | 649.17$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.76 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 25c | 638.13$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 618.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 598.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 4c | 559.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 502.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 76c | 496.25$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658c…908bbacked Yes | 41c | 493.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 33c | 446.05$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 439.92$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 76c | 401.42$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 355.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 19c | 321$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 22c | 310.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 66c | 309.72$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 6c | 301.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 237.57$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes | 20c | 230.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 222.8$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 21c | 210$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 21c | 202.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 200.18$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 196.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…485abacked Yes | 26c | 194.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 192.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 192$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 21c | 191.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 190.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 12c | 169.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 165$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 161.42$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 17c | 160.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 149.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 147.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 34c | 147$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 142.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 141.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 21c | 137.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 17c | 134.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 126$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 9c | 117.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 79c | 114.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 100.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 18c | 96.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 95.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 83.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 67c | 82.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 41c | 81.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 74.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 73.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 17c | 65.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…807abacked No | 80c | 65.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 65.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 31c | 61.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 61.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 30c | 57.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 57.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 62c | 53.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…010fbacked No | 79c | 53.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…53a5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 49.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 48.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 25c | 47.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 41.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 41.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 34.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 38c | 34.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 76c | 32.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…a14ebacked No | 66c | 31.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 31.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 30.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 65c | 30.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 67c | 24.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 62c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 55c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or below on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.