Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cc458179be149f319dab95e2274163bb32b3c4d98c000139666a76c3b37bac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 4,088$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.6 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 73c | 2,566$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.67 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 2,218$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.39 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 24c | 1,228$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.53 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 55c | 958.75$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.12 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 13c | 839.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.81 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 21c | 800$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.35 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 28c | 788.72$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.2 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 66c | 662.51$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.47 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 629.25$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 563.03$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.22 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 10c | 487.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.29 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 29c | 421.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.31 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 406.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.47 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 26c | 399.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.96 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 398.75$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 17c | 392.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 380.94$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 376.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 13c | 374.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.87 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 5c | 361.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 358.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 334.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 59c | 323.87$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.91 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 18c | 323.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.18 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 292.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes | 23c | 283.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.78 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 281.02$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 257.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 21c | 247.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.28 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 245.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 244.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 236.27$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 227.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 224.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 224.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 217.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 214$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 40c | 212.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.32 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 207.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 206.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 201.36$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 200.18$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 198$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.07 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 192.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 190.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 23c | 189.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 28c | 177.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 176$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 172.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 166.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.66 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 162.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 25c | 159.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 62c | 150.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 9c | 147.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 138.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 62c | 137.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 73c | 136.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 134.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.77 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 134.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 76c | 134.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5c…ce66backed No | 75c | 133.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698e…2b12backed No | 76c | 131.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes | 12c | 130.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 28c | 129.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 75c | 129$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 80c | 125.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 125.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 66c | 123.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…62b0backed Yes | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 26c | 120.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 9c | 118$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 59c | 116.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 115.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 30c | 112.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 23c | 107.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked No | 78c | 103.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…b91bbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 50c | 99.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 98.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 27c | 96.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 94.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 21c | 93.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 12c | 88.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 17c | 88.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 23c | 85.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 83.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 81.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 21c | 80.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b9c8backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 79.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 63c | 79.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 26c | 75.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 73.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 72.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or below on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.