Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a1542d3f9ceb4192b83827ca7e93a2953a97e0d41bb4601da136a4a02c54552
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 9,139$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 2,203$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.56 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 24c | 1,119$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.94 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 821$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.97 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 60c | 662.55$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 14c | 584.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 528.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 448.49$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 56c | 426$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.7 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 410.91$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 40c | 399.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 392.26$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 378.39$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 367.5$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 354.43$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 321.72$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 300$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.04 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 51c | 286.21$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 284.69$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 278.27$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 8c | 262.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 257.4$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 65c | 250.06$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 246.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 238.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 238.37$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 237$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 236.48$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 231.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 225.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…a770backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 221.56$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 33c | 221.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 208.95$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…b0ecbacked Yes | 17c | 205.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 203.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 200.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 14c | 199.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 50c | 197$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 189$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 186.4$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 180.54$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 179.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked No | 58c | 179.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…62b0backed Yes | 39c | 177.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 171.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 53c | 170$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 168$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 49c | 168$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 162$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 161.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 57c | 160$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked Yes | 10c | 150.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 10c | 147.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes | 58c | 146.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 49c | 137.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 54c | 137.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 52c | 134.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 42c | 134.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 130$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 129.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 56c | 129$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 125.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 125.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae73…09fabacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.46per pick | 75cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 124.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 50c | 123.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 65c | 122.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…711ebacked Yes | 45c | 122.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 120.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 118$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 33c | 116.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 34c | 114.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 109$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 106.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…8579backed Yes | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…c8e4backed Yes | 55c | 100.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…8d74backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 99.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 49c | 98.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 98.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 98.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 40c | 94.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 92.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 47c | 91.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 42c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 35c | 86.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 54c | 82.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 46c | 82.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 75.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 50c | 74.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or below on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.