Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a9640d8364a3faef673ef1714c696d44d5b028f32db4efcfc10300d54c7541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 59c | 1,100$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.03 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 71c | 1,025$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.17 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…c839backed Yes | 73c | 529.13$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 480.62$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.73 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 40c | 365.72$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.35 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 43c | 335.79$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.75 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 67c | 332.75$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…23a6backed No | 26c | 320.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 56c | 266.25$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed No | 37c | 225.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 33c | 220.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 20c | 210.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.56 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 184.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 182.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 20c | 179.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 169.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 15c | 151$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 19c | 150.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 34c | 147.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 53c | 144.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5988…9b8fbacked Yes | 36c | 139.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…d002backed Yes | 28c | 124$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…15adbacked Yes | 40c | 123$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5aa6backed No | 64c | 121.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 63c | 116.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 27c | 113.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…0499backed Yes | 52c | 95.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 84.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 76.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 75c | 76.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 20c | 75.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 48c | 59.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 55.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 59c | 42.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 61c | 38.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 34.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 57c | 31.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 64c | 30.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 27.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…0688backed Yes | 45c | 27.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 51c | 26.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…d9d0backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 63c | 23.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 80c | 20.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 67c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 78c | 19.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 19.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 66c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 58cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.