Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d864b78e9929aa9ff21ef9bfbf9f3ce75b60eeec879aacbc3c5d83cb4f6641c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 26c | 536.02$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.37 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 401.25$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 18c | 391.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 30c | 359$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 307.65$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 26c | 250.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 184.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed Yes | 11c | 175.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 131.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…15adbacked Yes | 32c | 123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 121.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 76c | 120.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 74c | 118.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 107.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 83.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…ce38backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 68c | 76.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes | 23c | 72.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 19c | 67.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 39.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 28c | 38.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…0688backed Yes | 31c | 35.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 33c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed No | 78c | 26.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…d002backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 62c | 23.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.