Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e9a6db00c9657342b6cd4b43e751a753b09290151c8cd63c8a6d865e8cd316f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 63c | 462.28$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.51 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 356.53$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 335.72$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 51c | 316.78$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 307.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 254.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 224.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 68c | 221.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 197.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 197.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 56c | 187.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 29c | 176.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 39c | 156.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 156.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ec01backed Yes | 36c | 140.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 35c | 134.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 59c | 127.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 37c | 114.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 113.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 106$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 93.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 63c | 83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 44c | 82.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 67c | 80.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 75.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 74.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 61c | 73.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 73.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 70.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 43c | 61.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 39c | 58.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 36c | 56.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 40c | 56.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 53.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 52c | 52.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 52.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 45.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 54c | 44.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 44c | 43.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 65c | 40.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 61c | 39.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 37.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…1e96backed Yes | 67c | 35.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 71cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 61c | 33.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 37c | 33.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 32.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 62c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 62c | 29.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 43c | 24.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 22.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 62c | 20.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 72c | 17.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.