Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88b42339ad6b8f13798d19dfa2bb9931edf1eeb3c7cd897f0ac65d1cbeb0fd3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 1,302$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 430$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 384.83$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 30c | 345.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 271.21$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 74c | 230.95$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 71c | 203.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 30c | 184.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 183.17$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 165.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 140.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 26c | 129.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 95.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 33c | 92.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 88.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 74.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 72.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 60.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 25c | 59.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 59.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 55.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 34c | 47.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 46.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 36c | 45.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 42.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 26c | 40.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 37.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 36.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 32.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 28.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 26.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 69c | 24.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 24.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 73c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 71c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.