Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf21c8d7346eb16a1f6994ea04b954ccf9e39a892fc44d1eccd7b71fb74d45d16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 1,593$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 1,189$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 920.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 629.44$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 36c | 541.74$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.56 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 504.02$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 27c | 450.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 72c | 381.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 34c | 323$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 28c | 313.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 294.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 27c | 294.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 283.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 5c | 271.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 255.51$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 21c | 237.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 218.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…08e1backed Yes | 23c | 214.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 210.56$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 5c | 210.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 20c | 194.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 169.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 169.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 8c | 162.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 150.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 145.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 145.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 144.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 137.42$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 136.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 14c | 134$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 24c | 126.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 28c | 119.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 117.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 114$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 28c | 108.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 102.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 99.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 26c | 97.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 94.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 92.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 72c | 92.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 90.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 86.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 84.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 79.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 20c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 65c | 76.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 75.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 69.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 68.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 46c | 68.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 39c | 65.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 20c | 65.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…cac7backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 61.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 24c | 61.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 55.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 51.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 48.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 47.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 44.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 43.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 43.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 60c | 42.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 41c | 41.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 79c | 40.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…9d00backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 35.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 34.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 33.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 33.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 32.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 31.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 73c | 30.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 30.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 63c | 28.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 25.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 60c | 25.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 59c | 24.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.