Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacdee6d047452e45e4dde444a7551edf6d70750e8a495025cc6d02096085b1fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 2,410$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.8 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 2,259$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 917.79$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 4c | 799.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 698.39$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…8c15backed Yes | 4c | 690$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 12c | 542.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 9c | 510.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 12c | 432.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 14c | 428.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 395.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 331.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 320.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 9c | 311.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 287.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 5c | 285$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 257.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 251.13$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 225.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 10c | 219.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 7c | 214.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 211.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 206.74$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 10c | 190.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 16c | 179.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 7c | 170.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 170.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 144.39$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 14c | 133.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 128.62$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 75c | 123$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 21c | 119.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 104.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 102.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 14c | 101.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 26c | 95.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 95.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 72c | 89.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 83.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 60c | 82.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 62c | 73.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 71.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 71.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 54c | 55.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 63c | 51.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 64c | 47.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 68c | 40.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…cd36backed Yes | 30c | 39.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 26c | 39.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 35.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 76c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc7…2c88backed Yes | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…b716backed No | 44c | 26.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 70c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.