Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b479ab6e32872d5072c6c0a89dd47537bebd60b9bb4a4c82d2a8eb47b62758d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 2,556$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.01 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 1,403$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 795.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 3c | 613.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 21c | 582.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 11c | 566.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 16c | 484.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 13c | 378$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 329.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 274.39$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 67c | 268$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 248.66$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 232.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 14c | 230.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…8c15backed Yes | 9c | 173.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 170.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 155.3$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 152.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 140.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 65c | 138.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 14c | 136.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 132.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 126.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 117$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 10c | 111.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 111.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 76c | 109.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 109.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 28c | 103.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 24c | 97.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 95.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 78c | 95.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 86.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 61c | 84.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 23c | 83.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 77.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…82eabacked Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 70.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 63.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 61.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 60.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 58.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 61c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 54.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 38c | 53.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0124backed Yes | 39c | 51.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 47.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 34c | 46.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 69c | 46.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 43.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 78c | 42.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 41.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 69c | 41.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 40.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 37.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 37.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 35.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 32.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 79c | 31.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…bb66backed No | 77c | 30.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…3fefbacked No | 76c | 30.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…36d6backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…9e81backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 28.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 27.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…b7d7backed No | 74c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 20.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 71c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 67c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 69c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.