Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ae81649dbb15975f6204f1cc6235b63e70883978f0197d8cab227b2425f57e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 900.05$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 851.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 755.02$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.1 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 2c | 510.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 14c | 487.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 11c | 393.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 366$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 29c | 316$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 15c | 303.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 300.91$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 4c | 286.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 266$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 20c | 254.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 229.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 203.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 192.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 21c | 187$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 173.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 165.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 138$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 17c | 135.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 79c | 123.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 21c | 114$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 112.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 109.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 33c | 104.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 70c | 96.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 90.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 33c | 72.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 33c | 72.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 16c | 70.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 69.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 68.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 67.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 72c | 67.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 68c | 66.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 49c | 65.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 60.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 60.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 58.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 42c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 26c | 50.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 45.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 42.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 35.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 31.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 27.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 73c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 25.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 77c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 23.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 22.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 68c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.