Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x253fc800f3632741ad6c4ba9b3ef0d59c3c87514673934494c58da88ec719549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 3,628$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,564.81 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 13c | 1,388$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.04 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 1,217$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.56 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 8c | 1,144$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.79 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 75c | 927.98$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.66 | 110 | 66.4%73 W · 37 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 2c | 766.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.64 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 697.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.93 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 539.55$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.57 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 487.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.02 | 194 | 4.6%9 W · 185 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 64c | 487.19$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.72 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 14c | 452.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 1,021 | 51.1%522 W · 499 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 7c | 419.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 53c | 342.34$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.3 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 297.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 17c | 256$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked No | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 239.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 9c | 236.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 32c | 229.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 243 | 44.9%109 W · 134 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 28c | 216.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 210.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.69 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 205.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 76c | 198.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 50c | 191.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 74c | 184.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 169$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…1b39backed No | 11c | 154.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 10c | 151.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.66 | 408 | 66.4%271 W · 137 L | +35.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 8c | 150.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.14 | 202 | 9.9%20 W · 182 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 25c | 138.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 429 | 53.4%229 W · 200 L | +26.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 38c | 133.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 9c | 129$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 234 | 58.1%136 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 23c | 128.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 176 | 18.8%33 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 59c | 128$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 370 | 34.6%128 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 22c | 121.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +9.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 119.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 42c | 118.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 901 | 45.7%412 W · 489 L | -29.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 34c | 117.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 26c | 115.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 115$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 106.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 103.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 62c | 101.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…56aabacked No | 73c | 97.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 84.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 785 | 57.8%454 W · 331 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 35c | 67.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 52.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…b2e4backed No | 70c | 51.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 78c | 51.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 65c | 51.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -14.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 80c | 50.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 788 | 36.5%288 W · 500 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 154 | 73.4%113 W · 41 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 157 | 25.5%40 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 51c | 49.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 631 | 21.9%138 W · 493 L | -33.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 34c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 74c | 38.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 24.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 79c | 22.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 251 | 42.2%106 W · 145 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 253 | 38.7%98 W · 155 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 71c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 127 | 84.3%107 W · 20 L | +24.0wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 72c | 14.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.