TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,482 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes27c1,894$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.731,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No2c912.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.924,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No67c908.33$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.311,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed Yes80c818.19$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.516750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes42c638.66$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.510342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No3c636.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.961,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No57c615.5$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes17c538.07$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.9350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes38c517.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.9695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked No48c503.63$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2425736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes17c444.82$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.1810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes30c438.95$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.2924141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No72c424.88$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.258,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No71c421.96$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.114,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No63c399.76$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.064,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c378.52$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.174,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c369.76$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.393,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No72c357.91$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes28c348$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.371,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked No74c328.7$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.0654735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes47c305.11$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No14c259.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.141,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No74c256.82$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.171,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes28c218$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.0239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c213.79$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.935,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes24c205$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5743932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c196.02$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No80c194.71$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.63,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No51c191.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.92,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No50c173.62$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.982,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No63c171.01$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.662,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes20c170.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2417251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes40c170.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.338337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No59c167.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.652,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes19c161.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.7414957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No52c159.6$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.72,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes35c156.43$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.445,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes40c156.12$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes29c155.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.015135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No51c151.4$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.472,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes36c141.3$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.385742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed No72c140$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.61,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c135.8$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.945,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No49c128.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.262,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No61c120.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.952,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No30c115.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.956,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes32c112.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.112530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes40c110$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.641046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No46c109.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd758…b0ecbacked No12c106.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.411127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed No36c104.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8618328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes42c103.35$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0620739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c103$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.199,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes22c99.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes54c96.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3237150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No53c94.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.522,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No39c94.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.882,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ee…807abacked No74c89.32$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick73cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes28c89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.081,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d43…9719backed Yes19c84.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.842231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes23c82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2229927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked No74c81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9417247.7%82 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes59c76.07$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4813430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No42c73.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1614151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes32c73.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.463,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3b…880abacked Yes30c70.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.643243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No75c69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.751,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.975525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes67c67.93$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes23c66.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5334831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd969…0932backed Yes38c62.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.694134.1%14 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf456…d568backed Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.521338%81 W · 132 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed Yes27c61.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9819956.3%112 W · 87 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.413637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes33c58.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.283,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No58c57.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.327862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No21c57.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No63c56.34$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6521847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No29c56.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1976059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes32c55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No51c54.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.733,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes31c54.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.747538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes37c53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3947239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes34c51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes48c50.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.218421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No62c49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4819737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba6d…9128backed Yes28c47.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.888251.2%42 W · 40 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.243,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes54c46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.021,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes29c46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.781,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d0…a380backed Yes58c45.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.414238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9297…358bbacked Yes29c45.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.342245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No33c45.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.192,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No23c42.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.021,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes28c42.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5761629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x868d…df81backed No51c42.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes39c40.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed No68c40.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.285267.3%35 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.