Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4927199fb56775e3374bf9b977ef2a8805044742a159261d5833ae2bd6ee1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 1,894$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.73 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 2c | 912.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 908.33$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 80c | 818.19$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.51 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 42c | 638.66$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.5 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 3c | 636.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 57c | 615.5$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.15 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 17c | 538.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.93 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 517.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.96 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 48c | 503.63$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 444.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 30c | 438.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.29 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 424.88$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 421.96$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 399.76$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 378.52$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 369.76$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 357.91$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 28c | 348$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.37 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 74c | 328.7$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.06 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 47c | 305.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.56 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 259.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 256.82$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.17 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 28c | 218$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.02 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 213.79$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 24c | 205$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 196.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 194.71$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 191.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 173.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 171.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 20c | 170.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.24 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 40c | 170.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 167.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 19c | 161.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 159.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 156.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 40c | 156.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 29c | 155.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 151.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 36c | 141.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 72c | 140$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 135.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 128.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 120.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 115.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 32c | 112.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 109.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…b0ecbacked No | 12c | 106.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 36c | 104.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 42c | 103.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 99.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 54c | 96.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 94.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 94.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…807abacked No | 74c | 89.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 19c | 84.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 74c | 81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 59c | 76.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 42c | 73.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 73.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 30c | 70.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 67.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 23c | 66.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 38c | 62.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 27c | 61.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 58.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 58c | 57.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 21c | 57.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 63c | 56.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 29c | 56.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 54.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 54.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 48c | 50.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 28c | 47.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 58c | 45.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 29c | 45.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 33c | 45.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 23c | 42.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 42.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…df81backed No | 51c | 42.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 40.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 68c | 40.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.