Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b476e72a3ac6b93dd9eace9fd138117bcaf5614006ed95ab41f2544e23e6b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 42c | 1,564$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 870.3$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.11 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 27c | 655.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.7 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 34c | 587.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…7c92backed Yes | 57c | 568.7$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 536.13$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 436.58$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 431.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 398.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 46c | 392.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.92 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 48c | 364$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 363.21$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 55c | 341.68$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 339.65$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 67c | 297.14$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 48c | 229.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 229.04$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 225.12$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 219.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 218.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 213.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 208.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.35 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 19c | 207.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 205$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 202.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 46c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 31c | 199.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 194.63$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 192.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 53c | 180.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 63c | 176.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 171.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 157.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 24c | 147$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 68c | 146.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 146$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 75c | 144.55$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 71c | 141.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 135.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 135.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…d1f9backed Yes | 41c | 123.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 48c | 117$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 116.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 35c | 115.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 66c | 115.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 114.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 112.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 49c | 112.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 45c | 108.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 44c | 102.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…a585backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…8d74backed Yes | 22c | 99.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 55c | 97.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 68c | 97.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 93.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 51c | 93.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…08e1backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 62c | 89.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 54c | 88.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 86.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 85.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 25c | 84.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 53c | 80.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 77.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 75.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 43c | 73.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 69.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes | 35c | 68.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 68.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 65.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 58c | 64.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 46c | 63.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 62.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 59.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 17c | 59.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 59.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked Yes | 53c | 58.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 67c | 57.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 21c | 57.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 54c | 55.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 57c | 55.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 54c | 53.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed No | 59c | 51.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.