Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba710f43b839833f0053c9e3c3dd6a220da58e340bf272c104d13491190b687a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 1,529$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes | 10c | 629.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 8c | 502.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 12c | 499.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 491.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 459$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 9c | 424.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 272.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 256.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 8c | 255.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 255$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 223.31$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 16c | 217.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 6c | 207.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 200.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 189$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed Yes | 17c | 161.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 155.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 15c | 138.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 17c | 120.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 119.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 105.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 37c | 103$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 73c | 86.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 82.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 34c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 17c | 71.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 71.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 66.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 65.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 69c | 60.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 58.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 26c | 48.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 27c | 44.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 39.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.