Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7803c2989fedefac0503a0ea22d2afd536bba112c64be1850054b69195215d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 1c | 10,712$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 544.96$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 47c | 513.11$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.71 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 30c | 471.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.1 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 45c | 443.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.21 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 400.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.8 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 353.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 337.93$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 23c | 324.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 282.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 252$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 251.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 42c | 232.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.09 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 220.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 79c | 217.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 195.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 194.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 186.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 39c | 179.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 65c | 153.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 152.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 145.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 42c | 133.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 131.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 124.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 45c | 110.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 106.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 96.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 87.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 42c | 87.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 86.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 82.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 81.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 77.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 76.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 75.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 74.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 39c | 69.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 69.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 69.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 40c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 64.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 63.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 52c | 62.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 44c | 61.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 60.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 34c | 56.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 31c | 55.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 33c | 55.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 54.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 46c | 54.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 53.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 57c | 52.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 52.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 51.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 46.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 43.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 40c | 40.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 40.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 47c | 39.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 36.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 37c | 35.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 50c | 35.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 34.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 56c | 34.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 47c | 31.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 45c | 31.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 31.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 52c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 28.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…7461backed Yes | 46c | 27.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…3ee3backed No | 63c | 26.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 72c | 26.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.