World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33bd40b641eb95a418388c981661858c108ccf7b64ebec1c7409f39ff0d60cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 1,054$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.54 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 330.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 284.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 252.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed No | 66c | 220$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 8c | 204.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 15c | 199.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 197.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 188.22$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 181.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 25c | 179$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b4…f613backed No | 76c | 178.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 172.41$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 126.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 122.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 113.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 113.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 30c | 110.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 14c | 110.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 108.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 106.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 106$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b3…04aebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 97.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 89.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 87.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 86.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 73c | 83.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 83.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…b432backed Yes | 25c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 80c | 75.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 17c | 75.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 34c | 70.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 65.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 63.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 28c | 62.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 57.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 54.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 54.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 39.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 31.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 29.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 68c | 24.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 21.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.