World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c399354cf9b563d00724eec653c50dc45f62419315efb758fc9e15f5a973dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 16c | 693.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 23c | 665.86$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 15c | 638.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 30c | 556.8$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.15 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 474.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 79c | 440.7$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 288.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 218.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 13c | 211.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 11c | 202.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 199.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 168.67$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 157.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 13c | 154.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 142.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed No | 75c | 133.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 75c | 124.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 73c | 124.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef2…ab0cbacked Yes | 16c | 121.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 19c | 120.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 19c | 119.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 18c | 112.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 38c | 102.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 13c | 99.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked No | 72c | 98.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 92.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 91.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 86.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 15c | 85.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 20c | 74.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 73.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 69.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 30c | 63.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 62.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 60.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 21c | 60.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 57.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 75c | 53.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 51.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 24c | 51.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 66c | 50.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 47.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 24c | 44.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 69c | 39.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 76c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.