TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,499

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,703 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No48c1,408$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.4332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes49c1,233$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.7923723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No36c523.81$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.917618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes51c400$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.525052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c344.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3252850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No46c338.08$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9514521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No9c324.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.987335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes48c311.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.778844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No37c304.47$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0121844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c284.26$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3823044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No49c280$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.025945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c211.62$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No21c207.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58e…daeebacked Yes53c206.38$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.38875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No49c200.3$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2631152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc4…4089backed No52c199.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes52c195$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.624355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No35c194$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8228558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes53c188.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.492231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No55c188$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.412055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes53c187$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.413225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.195341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes53c184.57$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No49c183.8$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6313646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c174$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c171$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c166.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No50c166.36$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0114959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed Yes54c158.53$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.921145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No48c141.02$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6932354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes74c135.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.054748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes43c132.44$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0418342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes52c130.66$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.166241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c130.36$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4234354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No55c130.18$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.546330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No47c127.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No45c126.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0323551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf57…52f2backed Yes52c125.09$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.041566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x463f…f78ebacked Yes51c117.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.67633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No48c116.6$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.861729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c115$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes52c113.43$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.581040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes62c108$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.042240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No48c105.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.585446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes51c102.43$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2318638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…a592backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302040%8 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes60c98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.494240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c95.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6244428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No47c94.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.213155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes56c92.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.079558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes61c88.62$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.895644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes46c83.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.033030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes56c75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed No41c73.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c69.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5617345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No25c68.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.045916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No34c67.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0224637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes57c67.88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.858236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd071…92ccbacked Yes74c67.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No37c64.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.596437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes50c64.29$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.051546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes64c62.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.672466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No47c62.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.436043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes49c61.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes45c61.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5818662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes40c60.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0239231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8251…879dbacked Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No44c54.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6215766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes52c49.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.765843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No49c48.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No45c46.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes65c46.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.431225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-54.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes54c46.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.29862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No25c45.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2622111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes44c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.23756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes50c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.52751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No51c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No37c43.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1512055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes62c42.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.35248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5512640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes73c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.075100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes64c40.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes52c39.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.395536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No51c39.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2926355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes52c38.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.713240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf456…d568backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No56c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.653158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes45c34.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.034862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No34c34.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.585954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…896ebacked Yes54c33.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.45475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No44c32.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.441353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe23a…4a36backed Yes62c32.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes64c29.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x718b…1bf2backed Yes53c29.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No50c29.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.461752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.