World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0103dcd734e071b7cf8ce55f8e57e38824e48c1eb3f320997d9ec20a0ffac63c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 1,408$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.43 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 49c | 1,233$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.79 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 36c | 523.81$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 51c | 400$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.52 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 344.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 46c | 338.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.95 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 48c | 311.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.77 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 304.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 284.26$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 49c | 280$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 211.62$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 207.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…daeebacked Yes | 53c | 206.38$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 200.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 194$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 53c | 188.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 188$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 53c | 187$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 53c | 184.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 183.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 174$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 171$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 166.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 166.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 54c | 158.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 141.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 74c | 135.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 43c | 132.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 130.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 130.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 130.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 127.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 126.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed Yes | 52c | 125.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 51c | 117.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 48c | 116.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 115$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 52c | 113.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 62c | 108$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 48c | 105.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 51c | 102.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 95.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 94.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 92.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 61c | 88.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 46c | 83.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 41c | 73.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 69.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 25c | 68.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 67.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 67.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 64.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 50c | 64.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 62.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 47c | 62.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 49c | 61.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 61.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 60.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 44c | 54.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 52c | 49.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 49c | 48.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 45c | 46.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 65c | 46.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 25c | 45.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 37c | 43.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 62c | 42.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 64c | 40.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 39.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 52c | 38.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 45c | 34.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 34.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 54c | 33.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 44c | 32.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23a…4a36backed Yes | 62c | 32.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 53c | 29.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 50c | 29.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.