World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4601d2a3b6d231f2171b35c69a82192e53b31665d2abd2e0a24942d26407a7cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 2,293$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 51c | 1,519$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 38c | 1,051$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.04 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 49c | 818.78$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.75 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed No | 67c | 677.33$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.37 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 608.88$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.72 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…9daebacked Yes | 2c | 597.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 592.84$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.94 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 42c | 496.48$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.91 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 330.53$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.58 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 64c | 313.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 287.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 281.42$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 268.89$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 250.62$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 48c | 247.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 79c | 228.41$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 25c | 222.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 61c | 215.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed Yes | 21c | 197.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 194.84$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 192.45$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 191.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 8c | 189.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 185.44$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 170.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 168$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 33c | 163.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes | 39c | 162.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 19c | 139.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 32c | 138.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 73c | 136.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 130.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 16c | 126.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 122.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 41c | 121$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 120.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 119.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 119.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 113.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 27c | 113.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 107.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 106.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 102.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 101.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 76c | 98.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 51c | 97.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 93.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 42c | 91.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 47c | 91.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 89.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 88.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 85.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…52d3backed Yes | 65c | 85.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 83.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 55c | 83.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 81.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 69c | 76.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 74.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 19c | 67.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 23c | 64.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 50c | 63.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 65c | 61.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 43c | 60.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 46c | 60.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 58.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 52c | 52.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 39c | 51.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 39c | 50.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 50.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 34c | 50.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 29c | 48.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 45.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 56c | 45.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.