World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ca7ebcfd98a88d8a689a790600fb7e181750cc6dbe2836ff2c098f6a241f86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 2,082$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.29 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 61c | 1,906$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 882.7$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.61 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 54c | 854.29$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.22 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 59c | 781.92$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 34c | 745.96$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.07 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 565.95$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.84 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 43c | 497.05$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 58c | 423.07$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.07 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 356.12$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.3 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 328.4$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 314.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 310.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 305.11$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.28 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 58c | 251.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.53 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 234.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 228$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 45c | 222.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 57c | 215.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 212.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 17c | 210.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 201.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 201.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 201$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…b48dbacked Yes | 56c | 179.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 165.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 52c | 153.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 152.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 64c | 152.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 137.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 17c | 136.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 21c | 133.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 126.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 39c | 122.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 122$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 118.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 118.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 14c | 115.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 112.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 23c | 110.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 109.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked Yes | 44c | 106.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 104.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 47c | 102.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 41c | 98.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 55c | 98.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 96.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 49c | 90.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 50c | 86.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 67c | 82.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 75.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 45c | 69.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 68.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed No | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 65.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 55.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 65c | 53.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 67c | 52.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 47c | 50.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 63c | 50.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…b1f5backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 49c | 49.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 39c | 47.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 44.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 54c | 44.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 45c | 44.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 49c | 44.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 69c | 43.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 43.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 39c | 42.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 35cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 41c | 41.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 74c | 40.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 41c | 39.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 37.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 80c | 37.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 37.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 60c | 35.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 34.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 34.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 44c | 30.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…b456backed Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.