TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,837
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,837 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6261…2e11backed Yes4c8,292$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005048%24 W · 26 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes62c922.98$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.511,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed Yes69c878.43$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61010044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes65c696.69$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No35c506.02$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.244,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No35c479.32$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.8165625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes70c421$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.385,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes53c367.47$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7617536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No37c315.78$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.713,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No34c284.41$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.6877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92e4…80dfbacked No78c257.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.621050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x986b…2721backed No58c238.3$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1320358.1%118 W · 85 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No47c225.34$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.23,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c224.23$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.695,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No37c209.89$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7337056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c157.19$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2572…80dbbacked Yes66c153.61$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3814446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes48c152.45$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2923241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No30c136.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5731454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No77c129.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8918347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes60c128.34$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9126344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No35c127.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.821,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No36c126$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1219648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes66c112.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.551,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes61c109$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4986949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes65c108.11$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7512530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes65c104$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0828368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No29c103.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.839,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x040a…118dbacked No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6412747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6718449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No48c99.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c88.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No34c86.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.174,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No33c82.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.61,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes64c76.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2319252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No34c70.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.323,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No35c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed Yes66c69.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.377058.6%41 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No38c68.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.461,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No32c66.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes54c63.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.81,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes71c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No31c58.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.383366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes69c57.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No37c57.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2817658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes71c54.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4618862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed No75c53.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2532958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3303…73e3backed No47c52.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.622965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes52c51.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.784,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked No37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.514833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes57c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.31,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes61c48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.289938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No42c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1717859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No39c46.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.22,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No34c45.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked No48c43.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6313048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes70c42.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No29c41.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No52c41.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.821,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No37c40.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5482268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.425758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No32c39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.521,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes40c38.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.572,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No37c38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.942,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No37c38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9489557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes68c37.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7428546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6240…54c0backed No53c36.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.982157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No35c35.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.194,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No37c35.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.528,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes46c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.114053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed No34c33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7124841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No33c31.16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8885049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Yes65c31.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.329769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.381855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes68c29.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes72c27.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No38c27.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9546857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73e0…e538backed Yes65c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.557245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdae8…4736backed Yes48c26.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.752842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…bc49backed Yes66c24.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.325658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…d610backed Yes45c23.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.472748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No80c22.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4454656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes58c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.692,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes48c21.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.559262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x58f6…167ebacked Yes63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.239947.5%47 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes68c20.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0214243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7528649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ce…9040backed Yes66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf651…86b1backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.46157.4%35 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2899…6ee3backed No54c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes61c18.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.191,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.