Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7676a23a732a0b31af2ce97378abf7a4e4ca2f727b8ad2e5ac874b2c93163bbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 896.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 739.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 643.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 80c | 552.13$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 432.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 393.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 250.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 235$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 29c | 189.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 19c | 101.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 13c | 88.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 66.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…ac1fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked No | 79c | 31.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…73f6backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.