Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6804caa176e7f773383f7d70f8307cef1f5d3a7ee16adb2917ca7802188db4e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 49c | 1,378$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.3 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 45c | 533.88$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.78 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 46c | 427.13$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.13 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 45c | 357.2$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 337.94$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 336$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 48c | 287.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 47c | 259.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 259$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 222.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 54c | 220$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed No | 33c | 187.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 53c | 161.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 135.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 46c | 134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 18c | 128.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffcf…67b0backed Yes | 47c | 105.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a57…d90cbacked Yes | 55c | 82.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 80.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 53c | 80.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 70.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 65.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 63.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 61.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 51c | 61.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 50.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 47.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa120…1f26backed Yes | 41c | 45.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963e…04a0backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 50c | 40.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 42c | 39.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 37.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 44c | 32.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 27.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 27.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 37c | 27.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 61c | 24.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…4807backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…fc55backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…9068backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.