Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd54338cd2a4c4250589a87dbfd0119920a14cde8d1289ec4e25d017b1275b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 35c | 1,695$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.21 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 44c | 1,407$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.52 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 47c | 593.62$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.54 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 535.3$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 284.72$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 233$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 9c | 182.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 58c | 165.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 9c | 164.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 161.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 125.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 123.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 72c | 119.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 35c | 112.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…9906backed No | 46c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 58c | 100.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 80c | 83.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 82.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 56c | 81.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 58c | 77.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 73.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 65.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 64.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 60c | 61.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 37c | 54.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 51c | 48.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 78c | 46.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked No | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 30.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 62c | 29.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 22.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 20.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…e563backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.