Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x320871f29dd91b7441c461630500f594e5021d9fb0a2b0137190e5165cacf300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 20c | 915.77$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.05 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 409.07$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 392.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 272.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 204.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 51c | 176$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 167.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 59c | 160$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 19c | 142.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 139.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 30c | 135.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 127$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 77c | 119.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 114.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 105.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 29c | 92.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed Yes | 31c | 92.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 16c | 91.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 82.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 76.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 28c | 75.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 40c | 72.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 59.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 77c | 54.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 80c | 52.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 43c | 50.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 50.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 46.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 26c | 39.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 39.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 34c | 36.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 69c | 25.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 78c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.