TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,538 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38e9…4355backed Yes56c3,151$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.34580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+103%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc86d…2e76backed No10c547.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.354816.7%8 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No44c498$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd9…3c35backed No45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb286…aac7backed No5c320$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.088726.4%23 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes42c288.95$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.591,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No56c278.12$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4933746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes74c234.54$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3956048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No57c190.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.911,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes79c189.8$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.446,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No59c176.15$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1334853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No34c157$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.985,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No49c144.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.152,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No56c142.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No53c141.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No71c140$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.41,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes34c135.22$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3735325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c131.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No48c126.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.631,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c125.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.369,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes51c125.04$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6415051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed No43c120$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.24344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes38c119.04$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0414452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No44c111$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.842,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No26c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.11,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4943139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4415529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3382…a6e4backed No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2af3…c472backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb07c…6c36backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No46c99.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5816847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No16c96.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.344,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed No16c93.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.767979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6618…6881backed No17c93.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.192138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No42c90$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.515,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No52c86.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.111,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No47c86.17$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6148743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3617747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No44c75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3313551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes57c74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.824,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No17c70.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No22c69.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.492,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.362,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No31c68.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1953855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No54c67.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.461,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No66c62.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.43,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.261752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked No55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310665.1%69 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes59c58.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.112,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes77c56.68$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.052,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No42c53.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4360054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No42c50.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.011,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2315246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2425954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20a8…d964backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…65e1backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1919052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2315345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No57c49.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.611,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No48c47.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8318142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes68c46.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.019960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No37c43.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes68c42.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.412,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No61c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4158358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6747935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.678155.6%45 W · 36 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c41.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.883,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed Yes56c40.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.939752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c38.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20b…390bbacked No64c34.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.274143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No54c33.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.962,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No61c32.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9343848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes56c30.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.642,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No48c30.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.718046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No64c29.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9213852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xebab…8793backed Yes67c22.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51560%9 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes77c20.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7240871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No68c20.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.815236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1249551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…c62ebacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb80a…6163backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…7bacbacked Yes74c18.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes62c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4622945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa9…6a4fbacked Yes71c16.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.