Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f62501e5720127895a78f796a98a098068d9fd7aee76ae1ced1df7844c22e94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e9…4355backed Yes | 56c | 3,151$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +103%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 10c | 547.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 44c | 498$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.12 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 5c | 320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 288.95$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.59 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 278.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 74c | 234.54$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 190.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 189.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 59c | 176.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 157$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 144.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 142.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 141.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 34c | 135.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 131.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 126.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 125.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 51c | 125.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 38c | 119.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 99.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 96.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 16c | 93.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed No | 17c | 93.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 86.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 47c | 86.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 17c | 70.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 69.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 31c | 68.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 67.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 62.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 59c | 58.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 56.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 42c | 53.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 42c | 50.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 49.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 47.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 68c | 46.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 37c | 43.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 68c | 42.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 41.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 56c | 40.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 38.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 64c | 34.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 33.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 32.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 56c | 30.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 30.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 64c | 29.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…8793backed Yes | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…7bacbacked Yes | 74c | 18.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…6a4fbacked Yes | 71c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.