Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ceb001ea4bc396b202979651d0f69ef48e3f346e3fa45f060685d263708c1b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 48c | 2,311$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.7 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 1,033$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 773$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.85 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 697.12$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 638.35$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 47c | 444.05$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.69 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 59c | 438.17$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.61 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 55c | 413$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 406.09$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 320.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 308.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 218.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 53c | 190.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 43c | 178.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 160.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 156$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…00e4backed No | 52c | 144$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 24c | 141.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 134.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 133.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 51c | 131.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 130.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 49c | 125.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 77c | 123.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 122.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 53c | 122.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 121$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 63c | 117.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 42c | 107.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 107.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 107$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 55c | 89.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 87.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 84.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 79.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 52c | 75.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 72.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 55c | 62.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 46c | 61.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked No | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 46c | 57.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 52c | 56.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…b109backed Yes | 51c | 56.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 49c | 53.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 42c | 52.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 51.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 54c | 51.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…b385backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 42c | 45.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 47c | 44.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 42.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 34c | 41.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 48c | 40.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…ecc0backed Yes | 48c | 36.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 55c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 49c | 35.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 46c | 35.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c532backed Yes | 54c | 28.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 47c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 27.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 54c | 25.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 63c | 23.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 45c | 23.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 47c | 22.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…5a56backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.