Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2512e0adca6a5691cbc51e0ccc92d44522a926a0c005dc40f52fd26a339dc1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 543.44$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 278.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 38c | 264.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 49c | 184$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 178.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 57c | 178.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 158$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 146$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 69c | 144.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 140.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 131.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 130.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 129.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 129.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 113.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 48c | 103.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 61c | 100.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 80.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 38c | 77.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 42c | 73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 68.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 66.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 60.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 44c | 56.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 34c | 55.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 60c | 52.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 52.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 65c | 50.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 43c | 46.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 42.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 40.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 39.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 39.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 56c | 39.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 36.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 44c | 31.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 28.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 26.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 26.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 42c | 25.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 61c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 23.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 56c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.