Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24a553e47720914014cbe849c1bc132a629c4443c90ea0f7ccf8f4c78861bc68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,519$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.57 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…79c8backed No | 41c | 606.2$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4019…5506backed No | 34c | 347.49$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 29c | 272.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 21c | 172.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed No | 36c | 151.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 7c | 148.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 29c | 145.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 139.48$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 29c | 108.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 66c | 93.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 36c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 69c | 62.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…9d03backed No | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…5576backed No | 45c | 56.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 44c | 35.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 56cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 31c | 33.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 49c | 26.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…ee34backed Yes | 80c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…c8a3backed Yes | 80c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?this page
- Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the #1 US song this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.