Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc34160fd93d8d0a7734380df583dd57d3bdf32a6870d7dd19b6ecc1ea9f646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 72c | 1,304$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.01 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…650cbacked No | 12c | 404$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 9c | 375$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 302.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 9c | 251.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 67c | 247.57$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 10c | 239$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 8c | 234$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 48c | 202.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 192.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 8c | 157$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked No | 12c | 151.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 19c | 122.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 27c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…2f06backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 76c | 73.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…e27abacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 74c | 50.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 71c | 43.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 74c | 42.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 78c | 35.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 49c | 25.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…df89backed Yes | 72c | 24.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?this page
- Will Haley Stevens win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.