Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c0b4dd1f0a4e418c629d8bf87303b495e5678cf5677a45e9489b2ba9f26715

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $51,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,159 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes	1c	5,429$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.29	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes	15c	5,023$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.74	1,114	49.4%550 W · 564 L	+57.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes	14c	4,699$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$659.98	1,601	47.8%765 W · 836 L	+51.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes	11c	3,504$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.03	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9689…df62backed Yes	10c	3,358$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.76	234	27.8%65 W · 169 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c0…fe99backed Yes	27c	2,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	53	28.3%15 W · 38 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b8…3f4ebacked No	73c	1,910$1,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.7	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x725b…8016backed Yes	17c	1,625$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.11	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Yes	22c	1,600$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.71	72	59.7%43 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Yes	19c	1,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	102	47.1%48 W · 54 L	+5.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	14c	802.63$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.05	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…c5bebacked Yes	15c	755.86$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.72	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Yes	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	192	51.6%99 W · 93 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2776…2886backed Yes	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda89…6a2dbacked Yes	17c	477$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.09	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x271e…f001backed Yes	15c	468$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	123	44.7%55 W · 68 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3221…166abacked Yes	19c	396.05$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0326…3daebacked Yes	18c	268.44$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.32	190	31.6%60 W · 130 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Yes	17c	264.71$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	149	45%67 W · 82 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	19c	264.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Yes	15c	198.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.37	359	54%194 W · 165 L	+20.7wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x257d…6f86backed No	73c	163.79$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.5	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes	34c	147.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	125	27.2%34 W · 91 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked No	69c	130$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.65	210	51%107 W · 103 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+19%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe896…2698backed Yes	21c	118.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	73c	110$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.8	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	31c	93$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.09	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500e…bd16backed Yes	27c	74.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	168	36.9%62 W · 106 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4f…8921backed Yes	14c	72.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc31…3fe8backed No	76c	65.3$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.89	55	69.1%38 W · 17 L	+6.5wins	+0.12per pick	57cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed6a…aeb9backed No	77c	64.94$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.94	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	72cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f8…a74dbacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Yes	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	30cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No	72c	33.57$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	454	72.9%331 W · 123 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed No	66c	22.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.62	192	52.1%100 W · 92 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event