Fifa International · resolved market
Arda Güler: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85fdafc382ece86ebdfee4553123160a33ebba8620d10591c90180e800baecd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 278 | 20.1%56 W · 222 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 80c | 1,542$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.41 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 59c | 1,513$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.13 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 21c | 1,183$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.18 | 227 | 49.3%112 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Yes | 57c | 1,053$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.24 | 132 | 68.2%90 W · 42 L | +20.0wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.33 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 20c | 781.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.96 | 302 | 20.2%61 W · 241 L | -15.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…c6a6backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…166abacked Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…8c97backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 161 | 23.6%38 W · 123 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…0381backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…a7e7backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 196.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 177 | 27.1%48 W · 129 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…f897backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaeb…5bf8backed Yes | 21c | 99.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…6128backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 79c | 72.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…b82bbacked Yes | 36c | 69.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Yes | 18c | 61.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 452 | 54.6%247 W · 205 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…45cdbacked Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 25c | 47.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 80c | 14.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arda Güler: 1+ goalsthis page
- Arda Güler: 1+ assistsNo won
- Arda Güler: 2+ goalsNo won
- Arda Güler: 2+ shotsNo won
- Arda Güler: 3+ goalsNo won
- Arda Güler: 3+ shotsNo won
- Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goalsNo won
- Christian Pulisic: 1+ assistsNo won
- Christian Pulisic: 1+ goalsNo won
- Christian Pulisic: 5+ shotsNo won
- Folarin Balogun: 1+ assistsNo won
- Folarin Balogun: 1+ goalsNo won
- Folarin Balogun: 1+ shotsNo won
- Folarin Balogun: 2+ goalsNo won
- Folarin Balogun: 3+ goalsNo won
- Gio Reyna: 1+ goalsNo won
- Haji Wright: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kenan Yıldız: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kenan Yıldız: 1+ shotsYes won
- Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kenan Yıldız: 3+ shotsNo won
- Kenan Yıldız: 4+ shotsNo won
- Tim Weah: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.