TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,472 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0484…4830backed Yes64c566.64$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.895,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes64c343.04$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.558,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c327$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.245,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No33c243.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.14,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes69c199.98$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9540535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8959…e0d4backed Yes58c179.87$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.88944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes72c161.66$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.88943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes67c148.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8931836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No30c148.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes70c144.56$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.371,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes59c140.11$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No33c125.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes58c122.3$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2371823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes67c120$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No43c107.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5519648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c103.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.67,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No22c103.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No33c103.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.69,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No32c101.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6313444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed No34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No30c95.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.87252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No36c92.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes66c90.93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes70c89.89$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.411,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No33c87.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4953855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No42c84.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.772,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes67c81.93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.753,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No31c81.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.434,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No33c79.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.151,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No44c78.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5233746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes63c75.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.042,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3382…a6e4backed Yes65c70.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.842944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63db…f90bbacked Yes66c70.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.795,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes57c63.39$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes57c63.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.33,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed No36c60.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.647347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes70c59.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.963,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No32c53.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.252,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No30c52.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1668867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes73c50.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7625261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3a…08d7backed No29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd718…a03bbacked Yes70c49.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No31c49.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.564,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No33c48.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1615749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes66c46.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.043951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No30c44.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6357948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No38c43.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes64c42.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed Yes54c41.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1313852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd170…a9d9backed No34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410665.1%69 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb701…8c1bbacked No31c38.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212070.8%85 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes58c37.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5119345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf287…40e1backed Yes67c37.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No30c36.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.062,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No32c36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3942160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes64c35.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.945152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No31c35.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No36c34.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5749551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No31c34.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes57c33.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.241,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes76c31.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.652,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1646148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes67c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2744465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb033…4f19backed No44c29.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.195343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes69c29.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2942253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes65c29.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2742148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes62c29.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.351,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40fb…3caebacked Yes58c28.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.13666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.574961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes61c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.924,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes67c27.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.149270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.534,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7921052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.254,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes49c24.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.317536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes65c22.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.94533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes60c21.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5921272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes65c21.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.371,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes66c21.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.169848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x270d…2919backed Yes58c21.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.831020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes70c20.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0823362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca2…fa31backed Yes68c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43745.9%17 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes70c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.995532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd751…bde5backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes68c15.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9658358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab8…a59fbacked Yes67c14.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.