Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ebc872a07bbb15bceb59cf2acefc60461b3630a5c4bb236a2cc059772386bcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 435$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 349.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 327$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 217$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 214.3$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 72c | 211$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 207.75$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 200.79$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 200.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 189.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 182$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 178.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 30c | 169.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 155.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 155.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 113.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 27c | 112.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 112.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 34c | 111.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 100.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 30c | 99.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 99.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 98.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 94.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 93.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 22c | 89.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 87.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 24c | 81.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 81.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 79.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 65.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 61.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 60.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 25c | 50.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed Yes | 25c | 47.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 45.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 37.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 33.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 31.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 73c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 24.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 71c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.